Which Team Is the Biggest NL Central Dark Horse?

Fact Checked by Thomas Leary

Opening Day in Major League Baseball is almost here, and for many sports fans, it’s the best day of the year on the sports calendar. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, they’ll start the 2025 season on the road with a three-game series against the Miami Marlins.

Ahead of the big day, PennStakes.com wanted to see what team in the National League Central is the biggest dark horse– historically. Using preseason odds and final win totals from SportsOddsHistory.com, we found the total O/U for each team between the 2020-2024 seasons and ranked teams based on how much they overperformed their preseason totals.

Biggest NL Central Dark Horse

The Pirates have struggled over the past five seasons at PA sportsbooks. They’ve finished in last place in the division three times and fourth in the other two. There has been both consistency and improvement over that stretch. After going 61-101 and 62-100 in 2021 and 2022, respectively, Pittsburgh has posted back-to-back seasons of 76-86.

Perhaps, then, it shouldn’t be a surprise that oddsmakers at Fanatics have set the Pirates 2025 season win total at 76.5, with -110 odds for both over and under.

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Can Pittsburgh Compete In The NL Central In 2025?

There are reasons to be excited about the Pirates this year on PA betting apps. They’re led by Paul Skenes, who won the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year Award after being called up from the minors last May. This year, Skenes is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young Award. BetMGM lists the righty ace at +210. 

However, they are in a very competitive, albeit not a dominant division. Milwaukee has won the NL Central in three out of the last four years and look to be in the thick of the race again. The Chicago Cubs brought in Kyle Tucker to rejuvenate an offense that batted .242 and hit just 170 home runs last season, and the Cincinnati Reds have one of the best groups of youngsters in MLB, headlined by superstar shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals will be looking to exceed expectations once again after a surprising 83-79 campaign last year.

It’s been a decade since the Pirates have reached the postseason. No other National League team has a longer drought, and only the Los Angeles Angels have a longer one, by a year, in all of MLB. Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the Pirates, even with Skenes, to make a run for October this season. Caesars Pennsylvania Sportsbook gives the Bucs odds of +900 to win the division this season.

Looking to get involved in Pennsylvania sports betting during the MLB season? Check out PennStakes.com and our reviews of sportsbooks licensed in the state. You also can find the best PA sportsbook promos available to help you build your bankroll ahead of Opening Day.

USA Today photo by Kim Klement Neitzel.

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Author

Steve Bittenbender

Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.

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